Measuring The Statistical Insignificance Of The Monthly Jobs Report (September 2007 Edition)

This morning, the Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a net loss of 4,000 jobs in the month of August, its first net decline since 2003. Markets expected some weakness in the report, but not this kind of weakness. Already, mortgage markets are up 31 basis points today. That's a swift, powerful reaction, especially considering that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.6% and is viewed as "strong". Today, mortgage rates are moving because the investors think the Fed now has an...